The government is set to release today (29th July 2008) shocking results that indicate HIV prevalence rate is not as low as announced mid last year.

Based on a new study conducted last year, the findings show HIV prevalence to be higher than 5.1 percent announced last year and the 6.7 percent captured by 2003 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey.

When the government last year announced the decline in the prevalence based on statistics from antenatal clinics, it was in upbeat mood: “Kenya is one of three African nations that recently has made significant progress in HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programs,” it said. 

But these new findings from a study said to have cost about Sh 400 million (US$ 6 million) to conduct, have shocked the government to its core, with senior government officials said to be sharply divided on whether to release them to the public or not. 

Several meetings, including a cabinet discussion about the study findings, seem to have finally decided to release the results, after agreeing on what to tell the public about the discrepancy in the HIV prevalence trend. Similar US funded studies in Uganda and Tanzania have not been released several months after they were completed.

It is understood these studies, which are using higher populations in their samples than even the respected Demographic Health Surveys, are consistently showing higher HIV prevalence rates contrarily with low rates presented by these countries.

According to the 2007 KAIS, Nyanza province lead with infections, followed by Nairobi, Coast, Rift Valley, Western, Eastern, Central, and North Eastern provinces in that order. But Nairobi and Central province registered a decrease in the HIV prevalence rate, with other provinces recording increasing infection rates when compared to the 2003 KDHS findings.

Similarly, while urban areas have higher infection rates compared to the rural areas, prevalence rates in the latter seems to be on the upward trend.

While the number of those going for HIV testing has increased compared to the 2003 levels, women are almost twice the number of men who have been tested. Also worrying is a very small percentage of the HIV infected men using condoms when having sex.

The KAIS study also looked at the prevalence of herpes simplex virus-2 and syphilis and their co-infections with HIV. Prevalence of syphilis infection was higher in the rural areas than urban ones, with males being the most affected.

Meanwhile, as the country ponders on these new developments, the findings raise some pertinent questions of what is really going in the HIV and AIDS field and which need immediate answers.

Are African countries, Kenya included, telling the whole truth about the HIV prevalence of their countries? Should Kenya abandon using the HIV prevalence rate in the antenatal clinics to extrapolate to the entire country? As sub-Saharan Africa been turned into a huge project where researchers are playing around with statistics as away of perpetuating their sources of income? Is someone lying to us or we using the wrong methodologies or different methodologies and samples sizes to come up statistics that re expected to guide our policies and strategies?. 

This confusion can also be blamed on some UN agencies that are known to formulas used to calculate the HIV prevalence that end showing lower rates than is the case on the ground. Government official are accused of using such results to brag of how their preventive strategies are working. 

These article was also published in the Daily Nation on 29^th July 2008