Most African cities face being hit by earthquakes as they lie on fault lines, a university don warns.
But Prof Robert Obudho of the Nairobi University’s urban and regional planning department says that, although the Kenyan capital is on the edge of the Great Rift Valley, it is more at risk due to its sky-scrapers.
Citing the recent frequent earth tremors that hit parts of Nairobi last year, and the landslides witnessed in the city’s outskirts, Prof. Obudho warns that these are signs of more terrifying events, some with devastating consequences.
The don notes that it is unfortunate that most African cities, including Cairo and Dar es Salaam, as well as Kenyan towns such as Naivasha and Nakuru are on fault lines.
“It is high time that African governments built their cities away from the fault lines or adopted the Japanese swinging type of earthquake-proof buildings that do not crack, to avoid the imminent disasters,” he says.
Prof. Obudho recommends that the Kenya government fix the height of buildings before construction work begins, arguing that the current mushrooming of tall buildings is a disaster ready to happen.
“An occurrence of an earthquake or a tremor is likely to cause more damage in urban set-ups than rural areas due to the presence of tall flats and office buildings in the city centre and the surrounding areas,” he observes.
The don further suggests urgent emergency preparedness campaigns in Kenya and other countries to help to create awareness among the public.
Through the National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), a coordinating mechanism for mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into development policies, planning and programmes in line with the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action, the government is advocating the urgent need for developing or adopting the relevant policies and legislations.
“A disaster response guideline that addresses all natural and some man-made hazards to which the country is exposed is ready and due to be launched soon,” says retired Lt-Col Joram Ngethe of the Kenya National Disaster Operation Centre (NDOC) reveals.
He further reveals that a national policy has been drafted and may be presented in parliament any time to help to keep the menace in check.
A national guideline formulated by Kenya’s ministries of internal security and special programmes as well as the NDOC is to come in handy in training more people at the district and provincial levels to be ready to respond to emergencies.
The guideline gives the stakeholders the opportunity to conduct at least one drill every year at the national level as well as agency-specific drills twice a year to assess the listed procedures.
According to the just released United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN Habitat)’s State of the African Cities 2008 report, African cities, as they grow, are becoming increasingly vulnerable to disasters such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, drought and tsunamis.
With the increasing city sizes, the number of people exposed to the threats is rising rapidly. But there appears to be little priority given to post-disaster management in urban areas despite the rapidly growing populations, notes the report.
It adds that the risks that East African countries are facing are the result of hazards arising from the interplay of natural forces and human activity.
The report blames this situation on lack of capacity to enforce building codes and other safety regulations as well as lack of established post-disaster management arrangements. “Lack of awareness and uncertainty about risk recognition often lead to a decidedly lower threat perception than the actual risk,” it adds.
The report cites Addis Ababa, Abidjan, Accra, Alexandria, Cairo, Rabat, Tripoli and Tunis as other African cities that run the risk of volcanic activity. Some of these cities face from low to moderate exposure, it explains.
The report warns governments to expect risks such as death and injury should they fail to take the necessary action. “With increasing city sizes, the numbers of people exposed to these threats is rising rapidly as there appears to be little priority given to post-disaster management in urban areas despite the rapidly growing number of citizens at risk,” it says.
Although they host many people, coastal cities on the continent are also vulnerable to the effects of the rise in ocean water levels and surge flooding.
It states that the low-lying coastal areas and the Great Lakes region are eastern Africa’s most vulnerable to flooding due to poor drainage and lack of preparedness for calamities.
It is estimated that 17 per cent of Mombasa (4,600 hectares) could be submerged by a rise in the sea water level of only 30 centimetres, with a larger area made useless for agriculture due to soil stress.
Sandy beaches, historic sites, hotels, cultural monuments and port facilities will also be negatively affected.
“The fact that Nairobi lies within the Great Rift Valley makes it liable to major volcanic and seismic activity, but more damage in the city can be managed through the strict use of building codes,” says the chairman of the department of geology of the University of Nairobi, Dr Eliud Mathu.
But he notes that Dar es Salaam, Tripoli and central African cities are not at risk since they do not lie within the active seismic zones.
Dr Mathu, however, observes that Nairobi’s latest earth tremor happened because it originated from Lake Tanganyika that lacks zones where it can release its energy, unlike the one that took place in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which was not felt in Nairobi because DRC has many areas with falls.
He adds that countries such as Japan, Indonesia, Sumatra and Italy are at a high risk as they lie within the Azores falls zone that cuts across the Mediterranean sea from east to west.
Commenting on the recent earthquake in Italy that has so far killed hundreds of people, Dr Mathu blames it on buildings put up several centuries ago before the adoption of the building codes.
“African cities equally must learn from what is happening in Italy and consider replacing ancient buildings with new ones to avoid the catastrophe,” he adds.
However, Nairobi deputy director of environment B.K. Njenga says: “We have developed an environmental outlook that has the guidelines on disaster management, but it is yet to be approved officially by the policy makers.”
He notes that the outlook was developed in collaboration with the UN Habitat and the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep). Developed four years ago, it is to enable the city council to take stock of its environment management performance with a view to looking at the future and assessing various policy actions.
With a population of about 4 million, the Kenyan capital is rapidly growing, and this is bound to have a major influence on its environment. Already, degradation is becoming a major issue for the policy makers.
For it to realise the potential of its natural resources, the city must underscore the role of its environment.
Whereas many African nations’ building codes prescribe earthquake-resistant construction, their application is often problematic.
The report warns that it is only a matter of time before a major earthquake hits one of Africa’s large urban centres.
It recommends to African governments to adopt an early recovery model by accessing a regional insurance cover against natural catastrophe-induced losses. The model is already being applied by the Caribbean countries following a 2004 hurricane.
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